A system sized to that bill
| System size | 7.2 kW, to cover a $180/month bill |
|---|---|
| Before rebate | $7,162 at $1.00/W |
| STC rebate | −$1,596 (42 certificates) |
| You pay | $5,566 |
| Generates | 8,487 kWh a year |
| Saves in year one | $915 |
| Pays for itself in | 5.8 years |
| Over 25 years | $23,680 net |
Assumes a $180/month bill and that you use about 40% of what you generate as you generate it — the rest is exported at 1.0c. A battery shifts that balance, and in Victoria it shifts it a long way.
Median of current single-rate residential offers and feed-in tariffs, Australian Energy Regulator — Consumer Data Right, Product Reference Data, as at 2026-08-23
Why the rebate shrinks every January
42 certificates at $38 each — 7.2 kW × 1.185 zone rating × 5 years deeming. The scheme closes at the end of 2030, so the deeming period — and the rebate — shrinks every January. Certificate price is market-set and assumed conservatively below the $40 Clearing House ceiling. Installing a year later on the same system costs you roughly $319 in lost rebate.
Computed at build time from the SRES deeming rule · certificates assumed at $38, below the $40 Clearing House ceiling
Victoria abolished its minimum feed-in tariff in 2025
Victoria used to be the one state with a genuine floor under exports: the Essential Services Commission set a mandated minimum feed-in tariff every year. That ended. Following an amendment to the Electricity Industry Act 2000, the 2024–25 minimums applied only until 30 June 2025, and from 1 July 2025 retailers set their own rates. The government’s reasoning was that the mandated minimum had fallen to effectively zero, so the regulation no longer did anything. The result is visible in the number below: at a median of 1.0 c/kWh, Victorian exports are the least valuable of any state on the national market. A kilowatt-hour you sell here is worth about a twenty-fifth of one you use yourself.
Sources: Essential Services Commission — minimum feed-in tariff · Victorian Government — solar feed-in tariff
What's different about Victoria
One of the most contested retail markets in the country
12 retailers are competing for households here. The median below is the middle of that spread, not the best deal available — switching is worth real money before you spend anything on hardware.
Most offers here are time-of-use, not flat
44 of the 73 residential offers on market price power differently through the day, and they are set aside from the headline rate because a time-of-use plan cannot be compared to a flat one without knowing when a household actually uses power. It matters for solar: on a time-of-use plan the power you displace at 2pm is usually worth less than the evening peak you still buy, so a battery earns its keep sooner.
Your postcode may be worth more than the capital
Victoria spans STC zones 3, 4. This page uses Melbourne's rating of 1.185, because that is where most of the population is — but a system in zone 3 is rated 1.382, about 17% higher. That lifts both the power a system makes and the number of certificates it earns, so a regional install is cheaper and more productive than the figures here suggest.
The market here
These figures are medians across 29 single-rate residential offers from 12 retailers, with 44 time-of-use offers set aside as not comparable. Melbourne sits in STC zone 4 — though Victoria spans zones 3 and 4, and this page uses the capital's.
The retailers whose current offers feed these figures are Alinta Energy, CovaU, Diamond Energy, Dodo, Dodo Power & Gas, EnergyAustralia, Indigo Power, Lumo Energy, Momentum Energy, Origin Energy, Red Energy and Tango Energy. That is who is actually selling power to households here this week — not a list of every licensed retailer, and not the same list as the state next door.
The honest verdict on Victoria
Victoria is the clearest case in the country for sizing a system to your own daytime use rather than to your annual total. With exports worth almost nothing and no regulated floor to stop them falling further, every kilowatt-hour that leaves your property is close to a donation. The compensating advantage is a genuinely competitive retail market — more retailers compete here than anywhere else on the national market — so the cheapest meaningful saving may be switching plans before you spend anything on hardware.
The other states
Compare every state side by side →
Where these numbers come from
- Power price — Median usage rate across 29 single-rate residential market offers from 12 retailers. Time-of-use offers are excluded — they are not comparable to a flat rate without a household load profile. (measured, as at 2026-08-23)
- Feed-in tariff — Median flat solar feed-in rate across 66 residential market offers. Time-varying feed-in tariffs are excluded. (measured, as at 2026-08-23)
- Solar yield — Clean Energy Regulator STC zone 4 rating (1.185 MWh/kW/yr) for Melbourne, postcode 3000. A deemed radiation-based figure used to calculate certificate entitlements, not a measured or simulated output. This state spans zones 3 and 4; the capital's zone is published because that is where the population is. (modelled, as at 2020-01-01)
How every one of these numbers is worked out →
Sources: Australian Energy Regulator — Consumer Data Right, Product Reference Data, Clean Energy Regulator — postcode zone ratings for solar PV systems.