A system sized to that bill
| System size | 5.2 kW, to cover a $180/month bill |
|---|---|
| Before rebate | $5,238 at $1.00/W |
| STC rebate | −$1,368 (36 certificates) |
| You pay | $3,870 |
| Generates | 7,239 kWh a year |
| Saves in year one | $995 |
| Pays for itself in | 3.8 years |
| Over 25 years | $27,946 net |
Assumes a $180/month bill and that you use about 40% of what you generate as you generate it — the rest is exported at 3.0c. A battery shifts that balance, and in New South Wales it shifts it a long way.
Median of current single-rate residential offers and feed-in tariffs, Australian Energy Regulator — Consumer Data Right, Product Reference Data, as at 2026-08-23
Why the rebate shrinks every January
36 certificates at $38 each — 5.2 kW × 1.382 zone rating × 5 years deeming. The scheme closes at the end of 2030, so the deeming period — and the rebate — shrinks every January. Certificate price is market-set and assumed conservatively below the $40 Clearing House ceiling. Installing a year later on the same system costs you roughly $274 in lost rebate.
Computed at build time from the SRES deeming rule · certificates assumed at $38, below the $40 Clearing House ceiling
Your retailer can ignore the regulator here — and does
IPART publishes an all-day solar feed-in tariff benchmark for New South Wales, set at 3.4 to 6.5 c/kWh for 2026–27. It is a guide, not a floor: retailers are not required to offer anything inside that range, and may offer less, more, or nothing at all. That distinction matters, because the median flat feed-in rate actually on offer in our sample is 3.0 c/kWh — below the bottom of the regulator’s own benchmark. Treat IPART’s range as a description of what exports are worth wholesale, not as a promise about what you will be paid.
Sources: IPART — solar feed-in tariff benchmark for 2026–27 · IPART — solar feed-in tariffs
What's different about New South Wales
One of the most contested retail markets in the country
12 retailers are competing for households here. The median below is the middle of that spread, not the best deal available — switching is worth real money before you spend anything on hardware.
Most offers here are time-of-use, not flat
101 of the 139 residential offers on market price power differently through the day, and they are set aside from the headline rate because a time-of-use plan cannot be compared to a flat one without knowing when a household actually uses power. It matters for solar: on a time-of-use plan the power you displace at 2pm is usually worth less than the evening peak you still buy, so a battery earns its keep sooner.
Your postcode may be worth more than the capital
New South Wales spans STC zones 2, 3, 4. This page uses Sydney's rating of 1.382, because that is where most of the population is — but a system in zone 2 is rated 1.536, about 11% higher. That lifts both the power a system makes and the number of certificates it earns, so a regional install is cheaper and more productive than the figures here suggest.
The market here
These figures are medians across 38 single-rate residential offers from 12 retailers, with 101 time-of-use offers set aside as not comparable. Sydney sits in STC zone 3 — though New South Wales spans zones 2 and 3 and 4, and this page uses the capital's.
The retailers whose current offers feed these figures are ActewAGL, Alinta Energy, CovaU, Diamond Energy, Dodo, EnergyAustralia, Indigo Power, Momentum Energy, Origin Energy, Powershop, Red Energy and Tango Energy. That is who is actually selling power to households here this week — not a list of every licensed retailer, and not the same list as the state next door.
The honest verdict on New South Wales
The largest and most contested retail market of the six, and the one where the plan you are on matters most: nearly three-quarters of the residential offers here are time-of-use, which changes what a solar kilowatt-hour is worth depending on the hour you avoid buying it. Payback is solid rather than spectacular. The lever with the most left in it is not the size of the array — it is matching your consumption to the middle of the day, and checking whether a flat rate beats the time-of-use plan you were defaulted onto.
The other states
Compare every state side by side →
Where these numbers come from
- Power price — Median usage rate across 38 single-rate residential market offers from 12 retailers. Time-of-use offers are excluded — they are not comparable to a flat rate without a household load profile. (measured, as at 2026-08-23)
- Feed-in tariff — Median flat solar feed-in rate across 84 residential market offers. Time-varying feed-in tariffs are excluded. (measured, as at 2026-08-23)
- Solar yield — Clean Energy Regulator STC zone 3 rating (1.382 MWh/kW/yr) for Sydney, postcode 2000. A deemed radiation-based figure used to calculate certificate entitlements, not a measured or simulated output. This state spans zones 2 and 3 and 4; the capital's zone is published because that is where the population is. (modelled, as at 2020-01-01)
How every one of these numbers is worked out →
Sources: Australian Energy Regulator — Consumer Data Right, Product Reference Data, Clean Energy Regulator — postcode zone ratings for solar PV systems.